1:51 PM
Dm Blogger
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| Federal Reserve Chairman |
After the last couple of weeks watching the stock market, bond market, and the fed I have a prediction. Bernanke will create a recession in advance of his term ending. Probably better said would be that the Federal Reserve will allow the US to go into recession, to prevent an even worse result in the future. A currency crisis that we seemed to be hell bent on causing. As surprising as this is to me that they have the guts to do this, it is actually the right thing to do.
Despite what most idiots on TV have been saying, this economy is almost 100% dependent on Fed stimulus. How do I know this? Aside from common sense which would tell you that printing more than 500 billion in 2013 to by assets is enormous. The math says so. If the economy grew at 2% for the first six month than that equals about 180 billion dollars. Far less than the money printing. Further more once they said they would reduce the stimulus, the bond and stock market acted negatively. So no matter what the talking head wish were true, this economy cannot survive without unprecedented stimulus. Let me say that again to be clear, the government and federal reserve have never provided as much support to the economy as they have during this ongoing crisis.
Now the way of it. Ben Bernanke knows that this cannot go on forever and he is stepping down at the end of the year. In order to somewhat preserve the stature of the fed, he doesn't want the next chairman to walk right into a recession, which they would if the game kept being played. He, and the rest of the fed believe that he has built up enough credibility that when it does happen and he is blamed. People will forgive him and run to support his "Great leadership during the crisis". This will provide cover to the new chairman who would have their term compromised if it would be thought that they didn't do enough, as the great Ben did to prevent the recession. The last thing the federal reserve needs right now is a crisis of confidence, and this will provide a way of doing so. Hang onto your hats, it's going to be a rough ride for the rest of 2013.
